BANKRUPTCY PREDICTIONS 2016

BANKRUPTCY PREDICTIONS FOR 2016

            In my 2014 Blog on the state of bankruptcy filings, I discussed the causes of bankruptcy filings and how it was related to the availability and amount of consumer credit. That article is here: http://www.planlaw.com/bankruptcy-predictions-2014-beyond/

            Now with 2015 behind us, it appears that the expansion of short term credit has still continued to push bankruptcy filing numbers down. Consumer credit has continued to expand at approximately a 6% annual rate through 2015. As expected, the 2015 numbers show a nearly 12% decline in bankruptcy filings compared to 2014. That is on top of the 11% decline in 2014. http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2015/08/yep-800000-bankruptcy-filings-this-year.html#more

            The filings in the Middle District of Florida show an even larger decline of nearly 18% compared to 2014 filings through the latest October, 2015 statistics. http://www.flmb.uscourts.gov/statistics/2015/October.pdf

            As expected, after the short term credit bulge, delinquencies are starting to rise. In the Third Quarter of 2015, credit card delinquency rates started to creep just a little higher. Car loan delinquency rates bottomed out in July of 2015 and have started to rise slowly through the Third Quarter of 2015.

            So based on the slight rising in default rates throughout the last half of the year, what can we expect for 2016? It appears that the bankruptcy filing rate should start to pick up during 2016 and accelerate in 2017. This would coincide with a greater amount of consumer debt levels and the gradual tightening of the credit markets as delinquencies start to increase. Of course, this being an election year, most of the activity in the economy and major life decisions will most likely take place in the last part of the year and into 2017.

            At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court on a regular basis. We have the experience and knowledge to ensure that you receive the correct advice when confronted with difficult financial decisions related to filing bankruptcy. Contact us at 904.725.0822 orbkmickler@planlaw.com.

 

Bryan K. Mickler