BANKRUPTCY PREDICTIONS FOR 2017: TIPPING POINT FOR CONSUMER CREDIT COMING SOON?

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BANKRUPTCY PREDICTIONS FOR 2017: TIPPING POINT FOR CONSUMER CREDIT COMING SOON?

Each year our office looks at the coming trends for consumer bankruptcy to figure out if bankruptcy filings are on the rise of will continue to fall. Recently, our office and some of the latest National figures show a modest increase in filings for the end of 2016 and start of 2017.

Based on my past research in this area, bankruptcy filings are tied closely to the level of consumer debt. When that level become too high, payments for households become unsustainable and defaults begin to occur. That then leads to the rise in consumer filings. This is exactly what we saw in the 2007 time period. Revolving debt and house expense became more than families could afford and the housing market collapsed, taking jobs, banks and anything else connected to the housing market down.

For 2017 some of the same trends appear to be back as in 2007. According to the article below:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-07/consumer-borrowing-in-u-s-posts-smallest-annual-gain-since-2013

consumer revolving debt (think credit cards) increased at the fastest rate since 2007. The rate was up over 6% from the year prior. This follows a 5% increase in 2015 and 4% in 2014. So, 15% in the last three years. Secured loans for vehicles and student loan levels also continued to increase, although slower than prior years.

Based on the above, for 2017 it appears that we will continue to see moderate increases in bankruptcy filing numbers compared to the steep drops that have happened in the last few years. If debt levels continue to rise then expect to see sharper increases in bankruptcy filings over the next couple of years.

As an aside, to see some of the causes of rising debt levels check out this article and the cost of being an American consumer as compared to income growth:

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/average-credit-card-debt-household/

At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court and see the bankruptcy trustees and judges in action several times a week. We have the experience to guide you to the right decision about whether to file a case, and if so, what Chapter to file.   When you contact our office, we can help you in your case with sound legal advice.

Please contact Mickler & Mickler at 904.725.0822 or bkmickler@planlaw.com. We will be happy to set you up a free appointment to discuss your situation and potential solutions.

Bryan Mickler

SUBPRIME AUTO LENDING BUBBLE ABOUT TO POP?

IMG_1302[1]SUBPRIME AUTO LENDING BUBBLE ABOUT TO POP?

            A recent New York Times article looked at the rising percentage of auto loan delinquencies in the “sub-prime” auto lending marketplace. The article can be found here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/business/dealbook/as-auto-lending-rises-so-do-delinquencies.html?_r=0

 

This article combined with a recent USA Today story regarding subprime delinquencies in auto loans paints a grim picture of what may happen with any slow down in the economy or change in expenses for the average subprime consumer.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/08/26/delinquencies-rise-risker-auto-loans/89389096/

Some interesting statistics from both articles:

  • 60 day delinquencies reached 4.59% in July on Subprime auto loans;
  • 90 day delinquencies reached 2% in September;
  • That is near the historical high of 2.4% from 2009 in the middle of a recession;

What remains to be seen, is whether the economy will continue to remain strong and the job market stable heading into 2017. If the job market falters or 22 million people lose access to health coverage, with the exposure to crushing medical costs, then the subprime default rate may rise over the historical high from 2009.

Bankruptcy can offer many solutions to subprime auto defaults. Chapter 13 allows for a retention of your vehicle with a lowering of the interest rate over a five (5) year repayment period in most cases. Your car may even qualify for a reduction in principal in certain circumstances. Chapter 7 allows for a surrender of the vehicle with no deficiency after the surrender – goodbye underwater car. We work with local dealers to qualify you for a new vehicle loan, either immediately after filing or after discharge.

If your family is still experiencing financial trouble even after the recovery, give our office a call. We have affordable bankruptcy programs designed to help your debt problems. We will counsel you on the potential long term credit benefits of filing bankruptcy in order to help you make wise choices.

At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court on a regular basis. We have the experience and knowledge to ensure that you receive the correct advice when confronted with difficult financial decisions related to filing bankruptcy. Contact us at 904.725.0822 or bkmickler@planlaw.com

 

Bryan K. Mickler

 

 

THE RETURN OF THE MEDICAL BANKRUPTCY AFTER TRUMP ELECTION?

image1THE RETURN OF THE MEDICAL BANKRUPTCY AFTER TRUMP ELECTION?

            The internet is awash in euphoria and dire predictions over the election of Donald Trump as President. One thing that is sure to change with the election is the number of people covered by health insurance and subsidies to allow health insurance coverage is set to decline.  Studies done in 2009 and 2013 found that between 57% and 62% of personal bankruptcy filings were as a result of medical bills that could not be paid. The link below compares both studies and the conclusions in each.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/health/managing-medical-bills/nerdwallet-health-study-estimates-56-million-americans-65-struggle-medical-bills-2013/

            My own experience over 20 years of filing personal bankruptcy for individuals is that medical bills are rarely the sole cause of filing for a bankruptcy. There are generally a variety of factors which cause individuals to file bankruptcy, with medical bills being a part of the equation. The authors of the 2013 Nerdwallet study appear to have accounted for this finding and still came up with the 57% figure.

“Bankruptcy: We relied on a widely cited Harvard study published in 2009. NerdWallet Health chose to include only bankruptcy explicitly tied to medical bills, excluding indirect reasons like lost work opportunities. Thus we conservatively estimated medical bankruptcy rates to be 57.1% (versus the authors’ 62.1%) of US bankruptcies. We also used official bankruptcy statistics, released this month through March 2013, from US Courts.”

So what to expect with an estimated 20-25 million people about to lose health insurance coverage over the next two years?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/23/25-million-people-could-lose-health-insurance-under-donald-trumps-plan-analysis-shows/

http://www.vox.com/2016/11/9/13487772/trump-obamacare-repeal

 

           If the 2013 study showed the accurate figure for “medical bankruptcy” filings, then the consequences for bankruptcy filing rates could be dramatic. Inability to pay medical bills will result in a dramatic upswing in the number of filings based on the 57% figure. The amount of increase in medical bankruptcies depends largely on whether the new Trump administration can find a suitable replacement for the millions of Americans who rely upon the exchanges and Medicaid, where the greatest losses of coverage will be felt. Loss of personal savings and increased credit card debt are also possibilities as Americans attempt to cover medical bills without insurance. A future article will focus on the effect of the loss of Obamacare to the medical industry. Will medical providers suffer the same fate as consumers?

            At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court on a regular basis. We have the experience and knowledge to ensure that you receive the correct advice when confronted with difficult financial decisions related to filing bankruptcy. Contact us at 904.725.0822 or bkmickler@planlaw.com.

 

Bryan K. Mickler

 

RISING CREDIT SCORES BRING MORE DEBT

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A recent Wall Street Journal article looked at the falling percentage of consumers with “sub-prime” credit scores. The article can be found here.

This is certainly good news for anyone wanting to buy a home, car or take out a loan. However, the good news seems to mask some stubborn trends in consumer lending. First, the percentage of sub-prime borrowers has fallen from 25.5% in 2010 to 20.7% today. While it is great that a large number of people have seen their credit scores improve, over one-fifth of the consumers in this Country are sub-prime borrowers who routinely pay exorbitant car loan interest rates, are locked out of the traditional housing market and may not qualify for a traditional credit card.

Secondly, higher credit scores leads to more borrowing. According to the article, “Already, consumers are starting to borrow more again. Auto-loan balances surpassed $1 trillion for the first time ever this year, according to credit-reporting firm Experian. Credit-card debt is on pace to hit $1 trillion this year. Student-loan debt continues to swell.” This has long term consequences for the typical consumer, as high debt levels typically lead to a default when any interruption in income is experienced. That is becoming evident in the subprime car market where default rates have been increasing and credit card debt defaults have recently increased for five months straight.

Finally, disposable income continues to lag behind debt payment needs. The average consumer has debt equal to 102% of disposable income. Again, any interruption in income and the consumer is bound to default on obligations. One glaring omission from the article is any discussion of increased wages to handle all this new debt.

If your family is still experiencing financial trouble even after the recovery, give our office a call. We have affordable bankruptcy programs designed to help your debt problems. We will counsel you on the potential long term credit benefits of filing bankruptcy in order to help you make wise choices.

At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court on a regular basis. We have the experience and knowledge to ensure that you receive the correct advice when confronted with difficult financial decisions related to filing bankruptcy. Contact us at 904.725.0822 or bkmickler@planlaw.com.

Bryan K. Mickler

BEHIND ON YOUR UNDERWATER CAR?

Two recent articles highlight both the good and bad of the recent auto sales explosion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/subprime-auto-bond-delinquencies-highest-in-20-years-says-fitch

 

http://mishtalk.com/2016/03/13/60-day-delinquency-rate-in-packaged-subprime-auto-loans-highest-in-nearly-two-decades/

        Both articles speak to the easy credit access that has allowed new car sales to top 17 million vehicles annually. However, that easy access to credit has come at a price. As a result of the flood of “less than perfect” credit approvals, the default rate on so called subprime auto loans has crept up to over 12% in some of the bond packages. Sound familiar? Maybe just like the subprime housing boom?

            The good news is that car loans are a much smaller part of the economy than housing and most likely will not have the financial impact of a housing crash if the default rate continues to stay high.

         However, most people need a car to have employment and for other daily life needs. So what is a person to do with a car that was purchased in the past couple of years which is hopelessly underwater and maybe not suitable for their needs any longer? Until a few years ago, Chapter 13 used to be the option most people would chose. That would allow you to value the vehicle over a 60 month period at the current value of the vehicle and at a reduced interest rate. The 2005 amendments to the Bankruptcy Code made this a much less attractive option. Now, the car has to be over 910 days from the date of the purchase in order to strip down a purchase money lender to a reduced value. That is nearly 2 ½ years from purchase – an eternity in constantly changing families. The auto lenders successfully pushed that portion of the legislation through with that time period since they knew that 910 days was the average length of a family keeping a vehicle after purchase. The end result has been many families stuck with high car payments on cars no longer suitable for them for years due to the inability to change value in a Chapter 13 or trade in a vehicle due to negative equity.

        Several new programs in Chapter 7 may serve to help families obtain the vehicles that they need. Chapter 7 allows a vehicle to be surrendered, along with all of the past due payments, negative equity and other issues, back to the lender. A new program available from a national lender to Chapter 7 debtors allows them to obtain a new vehicle the day after they file a Chapter 7. If a person qualifies for the program, this would allow a new vehicle to be obtained with no need to roll negative equity from a previous vehicle into the purchase. Payments could be lowered and the value of the vehicle would more closely match the loan amount. Similar programs are available in Chapter 13 after confirmation of the Plan. If this sounds like a program that may interest you, then give us a call for more details.

At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court on a regular basis. We have the experience and knowledge to ensure that you receive the correct advice when confronted with difficult financial decisions related to filing bankruptcy. Contact us at 904.725.0822 or bkmickler@planlaw.com.

 

Bryan K. Mickler

FRAUDULENT STUDENT LOAN CANCELLATION AND DISCHARGEABILITY IN BANKRUPTCY

 

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FRAUDULENT STUDENT LOAN CANCELLATION AND DISCHARGEABILITY IN BANKRUPTCY

           I had written previously on the issue of potential changes to the student loan crisis and the potential for change in relaxing the strict rules to discharge student loans in bankruptcy. Both Public and Private student loans are currently nearly impossible to discharge in bankruptcy, due to a bankruptcy reform package pushed through by Republicans in 2005. Essentially, a consumer must be disabled to the point of never being able to rise above the poverty line standard of living in order to attempt to discharge any portion of a student loan debt, whether publicly or privately backed.

            The Supreme Court recently refused to hear a student loan appeal which had the potential to relax the bankruptcy requirements for forgiveness of student loans. So, for now, the strict requirements remain in place.

           However, it appears that many students have taken another approach to the problem. In this article:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/thousands-apply-to-u-s-to-forgive-their-student-loans-saying-schools-defrauded-them-1453285800

 students have begun to challenge student loans with a 1994 Federal Law which allows for forgiveness of the loans based on fraudulent conduct by a school. The examples cited for fraud in the article include over promising on job prospects, earning potential and other problems which lead to high student loan debt with no reasonable job prospects to repay such loans.

           Our office has seen first hand the growing problem of student loan debt. Student loan debt has been growing tremendously over the past few years. The total outstanding student loan balance is $1.08 trillion, and a whopping 11.5% of it is 90+ days delinquent or in default. That’s the highest delinquency rate among all forms of debt and the only one that’s been on the rise consistently since 2003. (see http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahtouryalai/2014/02/21/1-trillion-student-loan-problem-keeps-getting-worse/ for chart and other statistics). The delinquency rate on student loans is higher than credit cards, mortgages and auto loans which have all seen a decline in late payments.

            Our office has started a new program to apply for such forgiveness if the potential client can show that the school over-promised earnings, job prospects, education standards or other conduct which would make the loans fraudulent. Let us speak to you about applying for such a program and any other financial issue that you may have.

At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court on a regular basis. We have the experience and knowledge to ensure that you receive the correct advice when confronted with difficult financial decisions related to filing bankruptcy. Contact us at 904.725.0822 or bkmickler@planlaw.com.

 

Bryan K. Mickler

BANKRUPTCY PREDICTIONS 2016

BANKRUPTCY PREDICTIONS FOR 2016

            In my 2014 Blog on the state of bankruptcy filings, I discussed the causes of bankruptcy filings and how it was related to the availability and amount of consumer credit. That article is here: http://www.planlaw.com/bankruptcy-predictions-2014-beyond/

            Now with 2015 behind us, it appears that the expansion of short term credit has still continued to push bankruptcy filing numbers down. Consumer credit has continued to expand at approximately a 6% annual rate through 2015. As expected, the 2015 numbers show a nearly 12% decline in bankruptcy filings compared to 2014. That is on top of the 11% decline in 2014. http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2015/08/yep-800000-bankruptcy-filings-this-year.html#more

            The filings in the Middle District of Florida show an even larger decline of nearly 18% compared to 2014 filings through the latest October, 2015 statistics. http://www.flmb.uscourts.gov/statistics/2015/October.pdf

            As expected, after the short term credit bulge, delinquencies are starting to rise. In the Third Quarter of 2015, credit card delinquency rates started to creep just a little higher. Car loan delinquency rates bottomed out in July of 2015 and have started to rise slowly through the Third Quarter of 2015.

            So based on the slight rising in default rates throughout the last half of the year, what can we expect for 2016? It appears that the bankruptcy filing rate should start to pick up during 2016 and accelerate in 2017. This would coincide with a greater amount of consumer debt levels and the gradual tightening of the credit markets as delinquencies start to increase. Of course, this being an election year, most of the activity in the economy and major life decisions will most likely take place in the last part of the year and into 2017.

            At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court on a regular basis. We have the experience and knowledge to ensure that you receive the correct advice when confronted with difficult financial decisions related to filing bankruptcy. Contact us at 904.725.0822 orbkmickler@planlaw.com.

 

Bryan K. Mickler

STUDENT LOAN BANKRUPTCY DISCHARGE STAYING DIFFICULT

STUDENT LOAN DISCHARGEABILITY CHANGES NOT COMING SOON

            There has been some hope that change from the Federal Government was coming soon to the growing issue of student loan debt. Both Public and Private student loans are currently nearly impossible to discharge in bankruptcy, due to a bankruptcy reform package pushed through by Republicans in 2005. Essentially, a consumer must be disabled to the point of never being able to rise above the poverty line standard of living in order to attempt to discharge any portion of a student loan debt, whether publicly or privately backed.

            Now the Obama administration has weighed in on the issue. And the results are not what many borrowers were hoping for from this administration. In this article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-14/obama-administration-hits-back-at-student-debtors-seeking-relief

 the administration argues in Court filings that the current standards for discharging student loans should not be relaxed. This case involved a parent taking out loans on behalf of his three children, but the standard for any student loan discharge would be covered by the filing. Essentially, the government argues that to allow a discharge in bankruptcy would endanger the entire federal student loan program due to the expected loss of repayments.

            Student loan debt has been growing tremendously over the past few years. The total outstanding student loan balance is $1.08 trillion, and a whopping 11.5% of it is 90+ days delinquent or in default. That’s the highest delinquency rate among all forms of debt and the only one that’s been on the rise consistently since 2003. (see http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahtouryalai/2014/02/21/1-trillion-student-loan-problem-keeps-getting-worse/ for chart and other statistics). The delinquency rate on student loans is higher than credit cards, mortgages and auto loans which have all seen a decline in late payments.

            Putting in some form of ability to discharge private student loans would be a good start to addressing the growing student loan problem that continues to plague today’s struggling consumers. Often, private student loans have been incurred at predatory type of institutions which provide minimal benefit to consumers or which have very low graduation rates compared to the level of lending. More than 70 percent of Americans matriculate at a four-year college — the seventh-highest rate among 23 developed nations. But less than two-thirds end up graduating. Including community colleges, the graduation rate drops to 53 percent. (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/26/business/economy/dropping-out-of-college-and-paying-the-price.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0). Allowing truly needy consumers the ability to discharge some private loans would allow those consumers the ability to enter the credit markets again in order to purchase homes, cars and other necessary items in order to contribute to the economy, without the burden of crushing student loan debt. The rate of home ownership is 36% less among those currently repaying student debt, according to research from ProgressNow.

At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court on a regular basis. We have the experience and knowledge to ensure that you receive the correct advice when confronted with difficult financial decisions related to filing bankruptcy. Contact us at 904.725.0822 or bkmickler@planlaw.com.

 

Bryan K. Mickler

MORTGAGES AFTER BANKRUPTCY – IS IT ABOUT TO GET BETTER?

MORTGAGES AFTER BANKRUPTCY – IS IT ABOUT TO GET BETTER?

One of the leading questions that I receive while consulting with people is about the effect of bankruptcy on the ability to purchase a home in the future. Despite financial troubles, people tend to look ahead in their lives and see a brighter financial future. This can be especially true when they consider that they could be essentially debt free after many bankruptcies.

A recent article highlights the potential to quickly recover from a negative credit event in order to purchase a home:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/call-it-a-comeback-for-risky-home-buyers-1435185671

The Wall Street Journal article discussed the new lenders pouring into the mortgage market in order to fund home mortgages shortly after foreclosure, bankruptcy or other types of credit events. Typical waiting times for mortgages after such events are normally 2-4 years. According to the article, hedge funds and other private lenders have stepped into the void left behind by traditional lenders. These non-traditional lenders can approve a mortgage loan in just weeks after a foreclosure according the article. Often these lenders charge rates between 5-10% and require down payments of 25% for mortgage loans, well above traditional levels.

The service provided by these lenders is a valuable one. But like the subprime mortgage crisis that caused the financial turmoil of the last few years, it will be interesting to see if the loosening of lending standards causes a return of the high default rates of the past.

At Mickler & Mickler, we attend Court on a regular basis. We have the experience and knowledge to ensure that you receive the correct advice when confronted with difficult financial decisions related to filing bankruptcy. Contact us at 904.725.0822 orbkmickler@planlaw.com.

 

Bryan K. Mickler

The End of Stripping Second Mortgages in Jacksonville Bankruptcy

13802 Windsor Crown Ct E, Jacksonville, FL 32225

 

The End of Stripping Second Mortgages in Jacksonville Bankruptcy

 

It was fun while it lasted. For the past two years, the 11th Circuit decision of McNeal v. GMAC Mortgage LLC (In re McNeal), 2012 WL 1649853 (11th Cir. May 11, 2012), allowed lien-stripping of a wholly unsecured lien or second mortgage in chapter 7. However, the as the saying goes, “The party is over . . . “

 

This week, however, the Supreme Court voided the ability to strip second mortgages in Chapter 7 cases. Now, Chapter 13 may be the only avenue to obtain relief from the second mortgage. This option is still attractive if the first mortgage is subject to modification. I have previously written about modification of Mortgages through Chapter 13 in Jacksonville, FL bankruptcy:

 

http://www.planlaw.com/modification-of-mortgages-in-chapter-13-in-jacksonville-fl/

 

If you feel that you may benefit from a loan modification or any type of mortgage relief, contact our office at 904.725.0822 or bkmickler@planlaw.com for a free consultation.

 

Bryan Mickler